Mount Shasta, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

363
FXUS66 KMFR 231115
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
315 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

.DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...

Overview:

Items of interest include our snowfall potential now through about
middle of next week. We have issued a Winter Storm Watch to account
for this potential Sunday through Monday night. The timing of this
may shrink, but we do have potential impacts through this period,
especially areas along Highway 89 that includes Snowmans Summit and
Deadhorse Summit in Siskiyou County. Additionally, expecting
snowfall across higher elevations, but not seeing much impacts here
given the elevations. With this system coming in, we will also see
the potential for wind impacts, but those impacts are marginal and
confined to Shasta Valle at this time.

Further Details:

A broad area of cyclonic circulations will be noted over the waters
of the PacNW resulting in several rounds of precipitation now
through middle of next week. By Sunday, another distinct surface low
will develop and round the southern periphery of this broader
circulation, and this will bring potential impacts across the
region. Most notable is the snow potential across southern Siskiyou
County; otherwise, snowfall will be confined to higher elevations.
Mount Shasta forecast soundings are showing very steep lapse rates
within dendritic growth zone with plenty of available moisture.
Snowfall rates could approach 0.75" to 1.0" per hour Sunday
afternoon through Monday morning. Lower elevations likely wont see
these rates, but areas along Highway 89 in Siskiyou County could
have issues during the Monday morning commute. Will need to monitor
this situation in case we start to see potential impacts at lower
elevations that could impact I-5.

This system will increase the pressure gradient across the area
and bring the potential for at least breezy winds Sunday through
Monday night. Of particular interest will be Shasta Valley where
advisory criteria could be met but its marginal at this time.
However, given the snow potential, we could have some blowing snow
concerns that could also create visibility restrictions.

Beyond Tuesday, it looks like we might finally get a break in
precipitation that could last through Thanksgiving.

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z TAFS...Shower activity will continue into the
afternoon, then diminish briefly before widespread precipitation
returns with the next front arriving tonight. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible over the coastal waters and along the coast through
tomorrow afternoon as well. Overall, expect mainly VFR/MVFR
conditions today through this evening, then widespread MVFR/IFR
conditions and gusty south winds with the arrival of the front
tonight. Low level wind shear is possible late tonight along and
west of the Cascades, especially along the coast.

-BPN

&&

.MARINE...200 AM PST Saturday, November 23, 2024...Breezy
southwest winds will continue this morning, with seas remaining
steep. Another front will approach the area this evening, bringing
south gales and very steep wind driven seas tonight through
Sunday. Conditions remain unsettled as additional systems track
across the region through Tuesday, then north winds return as high
pressure builds in for the second half of the week.

-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday night
     for CAZ082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this
     evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM PST Sunday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$